The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned that confrontations between a semi-autonomous Jubaland and the Somali Federal Government pose a high risk of further internal violence and a proxy conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia.
The tension between Kismayo and Mogadishu came after Ahmed Mohamed Islam commonly known as Madobe was re-elected for a third term as president of the southern state of Jubaland on November 25, 2024, which is not recognized by the federal government of Somalia.
According to ISW, Jubbaland, and Somalia have been disputed over the format of the 2025 elections since October.
Following the election, Somalia’s government requested an Interpol Red Notice to arrest Madobe and thus the Banadir Regional Court in Mogadishu authorized the request, accusing Madobe of treason and revealing classified information to foreign entities.
In response, the cabinet ministers of the State of Jubaland in Kismayo derecognized the Federal Government of Somalia in Mogadishu on November 28, 2024.
A semi-autonomous Jubaland derecognizes the Somali government
ISW, in its latest research report, has warned that Jubaland and Somalia “may engage in further limited clashes in the coming weeks.”
“Both sides have warned of the potential for continued violence in Ras Kamboni,” ISW emphasized, reminding a 15-day deadline of Madobe which was given on November 29, 2024, to Somalia to withdraw its military forces from Ras Kamboni.
ISW recorded the events that Somalia deployed additional troops to Ras Kamboni near the border with Kenya, on November 25 which led to an exchange of gunfire between Jubbaland and Somalia.
Somalia on Friday also accused Ethiopia of “interfering in its southern Jubaland region,” calling it “against the sovereignty and unity of Somalia,” AFP reported.
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has not immediately responded to the accusation.
A former Turkish province, Egypt meets Ankara in Mogadishu, a few miles from the Ethiopian border
ISW has warned that “the overlapping local and regional disputes risk sparking a direct or proxy conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia with Egyptian backing,” indicating that Egypt has sent weapons and deployed troops to Somalia since signing defense deals with Somalia in August 2024.
